The Market's Compass Technical View

The Market’s Compass Developed Markets Country ETF Study

The Market's Compass — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 11:39:00 GMT

Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Developed Markets Country (DMC) ETF Study #596. It highlights the technical changes of the 21 DM Country ETFs that I track on a weekly basis and publish every third week. There are three ETF Studies that include the Market’s Compass US Index and Sector (USIS) ETF Study, the Developed Markets Cou…

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

The Market's Compass — Sun, 21 Jun 2026 17:12:55 GMT

Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study #247. The Study tracks the technical condition of sixteen of the larger market cap cryptocurrencies. Every week the Studies will highlight the technical changes of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I track as well as highlights on noteworthy moves in individual Cryptocurren…

The Market's Compass Emerging Markets Country ETF Study

The Market's Compass — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 11:02:51 GMT

Welcome to The Market’s Compass Emerging Market’s Country ETF Study, Week #600. As always, it highlights the technical changes of the 20 EM Country ETFs that I track on a weekly basis and publish every third week. Paid subscribers will receive this week’s unabridged Emerging Market’s Country ETF Study sent to their registered e-mail. Past publications c…

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

The Market's Compass — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 16:01:48 GMT

Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study #246. The Study tracks the technical condition of sixteen of the larger market cap cryptocurrencies. Every week the Studies will highlight the technical changes of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I track as well as highlights on noteworthy moves in individual Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. Past publications including the Weekly ETF Studies can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the Sixteen Individual Cryptocurrencies

An explanation of my objective Individual Technical Rankings and Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select “crypto sweet 16”. What follows is a Cliff Notes version* of the full explanation…

*The technical ranking system is a quantitative approach that utilizes multiple technical considerations that include but are not limited to trend, momentum, measurements of accumulation/distribution and relative strength. The TR of each individual Cryptocurrency can range from 0 to 50. The Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking or “SSTTR” is the sum of the sixteen individual TRs and can be viewed as an overbought / oversold indicator as well as a confirmation / non-confirmation indicator.

After falling for four weeks in a row, down 60.9% from 457.5 on May 8th to 179 two weeks ago (which marked the lowest level since March 27th reading of 158), the Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking rebounded +18.16% last week to 211.5.

Last week twelve of the Sweet Sixteen TRs gained ground, one was unchanged, and three TRs fell. None of the Crypto Currency TRs ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs between 35 and 50), five ended the week in the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5), and eleven were in the “red zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). The previous week when there was only one TR in the “green zone”, one was in the “blue zone” and fourteen were in “red zone”. The average TR gain on the week was +2.03 vs. the previous week’s average TR loss of 4.13.

**The 13-Week Simple Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1^st**

*The 13-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA) lines smooths what can be “choppy” Objective Technical Rankings and better defines the trend in the TRs. Changes in the SMA trends with follow-through are signals worthy of consideration.

Although Tron’s (TRX) 13-Week SMA of its Technical Ranking trend higher has begun to slow it nonetheless continues to far outpace the rest of the Sweet Sixteen TR SMAs. Last week Cosmos’s (ATOM), Dogecoin’s (DOGE), and Stellar’s (XLM) 13-Week SMAs edged higher while the balance of the 13-Week SMAs have remained static or drifted lower.

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

The Relative Rotation Graph, commonly referred to as RRGs, was developed in 2004-2005 by Julius de Kempenaer. These charts are a unique visualization tool for relative strength analysis. Chartists can use RRGs to analyze the relative strength trends of several securities against a common benchmark, (in this case the CCi30 Index*) and against each other over any given period (in the case below, daily) over the past two weeks. The power of RRG is its ability to plot relative performance on one graph and show true rotation. All RRGs charts use four quadrants to define the four phases of a relative trend. The Optuma RRG charts rotates from Leading (in green) to Weakening (in yellow) to Lagging (in pink) to Improving (in blue) and back to Leading (in green). True rotations can be seen as securities move from one quadrant to the other over time. This is only a brief explanation of how to interpret RRG charts. To learn more, see the postscripts and links at the end of this Blog.

*The CCi30 Index is a registered trademark and was created and is maintained by an independent team of mathematicians, quants and fund managers lead by Igor Rivin. It is a rules-based index designed to objectively measure the overall growth, daily and long-term movement of the blockchain sector. It does so by indexing the 30 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding stable coins (more details can be found at CCi30.com).

The chart below has two weeks, or 14 days, of relative data points vs. the benchmark, deliniated by the dots or nodes. Not all of the Sweet Sixteen are plotted in this RRG Chart. I have done this for clarity purposes. Those which I believe are of higher technical interest remain.

After briefly entering the Lagging Quadrant Cosmos (ATOM) hooked higher and mounted a recovery through the Weakening Quadrant, ending late last week back in the Leading Quadrant exhibiting strong Relative Strength Momentum. Polygon (POL) rolled over early last week after rising into the Leading Quadrant two weeks ago and has now fallen into the Weakening Quadrant. Although Cardano’s (ADA) Relative Strength Momentum in the Lagging Quadrant has begun to slow and appears to be turning, it nevertheless sports the lowest Relative Strength Ratio of the Sweet Sixteen vs. the benchmark CCi30 Index last Friday at 88.05 (see the Tabulation Table below). Uniswap (UNI) rose sharply last week in the Lagging Quadrant and entered the Improving Quadrant.

I have left Stellar (XLM), which is literally “off the chart”, off the RRG chart. As can be seen on the Tabulation Table it still far outpaces the other Crypto Currencies on a Relative Strength basis vs. the CCi30 Index with a 122.36 RS Ratio That said, it has declined from the historic high of 131.56 the previous week.

Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”

The “Tabulation Table” below marks the Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum readings of the Sweet Sixteen vs. the CCi30 Index at the end of last week and the end of the two preceding weeks. If there has been an improvement in either the Relative Strength Ratio or the Relative Strength Momentum reading since the end of the preceding week, I have highlighted it in green. If there has been a contraction in either it is highlighted in red and an unchanged reading in either will remain black. The color-coding system has served as a heat map over the past three weeks highlighting either the continued improvement, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark CCi30 Index. The crypto currencies that are in the comments below the RRG chart are highlighted in blue.

Seven Day Absolute % Price Change*

*Friday June 5th to Friday June 12th

Over the past seven days ten of the Sweet Sixteen gained absolute ground with six of the cryptos trading lower vs. the previous week when all sixteen cryptos I track in these pages traded sharply lower with all but one marking double-digit absolute price losses. Last week the average absolute percentage gain was +3.21% vs. the previous week when the average absolute loss was -18.73%. Both weekly average losses and gains exclude the two Indexes.

Year to Date Absolute % Price Change

The Average YTD Absolute % Price Change of The Sweet Sixteen at the end of last week was -22.14%. A vast improvement from the end of the week before when the Average YTD % Price Change was -33.56%.

The Technical Condition Factors

The Technical Condition Factors or TCFs are utilized in the calculation of the Individual Crypto Currencies Technical Rankings. What is shown in the excel panel below is the total TCFs of all sixteen TRs. A few TCFs carry more weight than the others, such as the Weekly Trend Factor and the Weekly Momentum Factor in compiling each individual TR of each of the 16 Cryptocurrencies. Because of that, the excel sheet below calculates each factor’s weekly reading as a percentage of the possible total.

A full explanation of my Technical Condition Factors go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select Crypto Sweet 16.

The Daily Momentum Technical Condition Factor or “DMTCF” rose last week to 38.39% or 43 out of a possible 112 after it fell to a deeply oversold reading of 4.46% or 5 out of a possible 112 two weeks ago.

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week over week basis, more of the 16 Cryptocurrencies are improving internally on a technical basis, confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if more of the TCFs fall on a week over week basis, more of the “Cryptos” are deteriorating on a technical basis confirming the broader market move lower. At the end of last week three of the TCFs registered decreases, three logged increases, and two were unchanged.

The Weekly CCi30 Index and The Weekly Stochastic Momentum Index, MACD, and The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or“TSSTCF” Oscillator*

The “TSSTCF” Oscillator tallies the eight objective Technical Condition Factors into one overbought / oversold indicator that ranges between 0 and 8.

Two weeks ago, I added a new short-term Schiff Pitchfork (light green P1 through P3), but I did not extend it backwards to avoid “overforking” the chart. Nonetheless, at the end of the week the Median Line (green dotted line) did offer a measure of support again as did the February 6th price pivot low at 9,295.00 but it would be a stretch to declare last week’s rally as a “game changer” as it failed to retake the ground above broken price support at the 10,200 level. The 8-Week Stochastic Momentum Index continues to track lower below its signal line. Although MACD has avoided a violation of its signal line, it has started to roll over and remains in negative territory. The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or “TSSTCF”rebounded slightly last week and although it signals an oversold condition the shorter term 5-Week Moving Average (red line) continues to track lower and is teetering on support at the again falling 21-Week moving average (blue line) and with it the TSSTCF is in danger of falling to a lower low.

The CCi30 Index Daily Candlestick Chart with Momentum Oscillators

Last week’s sideways price recovery on the Daily price chart looks to me more like a Elliott Wave 4th wave rebound prior to a 5th Wave final downdraft than a sustainable bottom. That said, the 8-Day Stochastic Momentum Index has exited oversold territory and than my Sweet Sixteen Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator retaken the ground above the 5-Day SMA (red line) and the 45-Day EMA (blue line). Only if key first resistance at the 10,210.00 can be overtaken will my technical thesis that the lows in the CCi30 Index are not “IN” will be brought into question. As I wrote last week, “I expect a short-term oversold rally but there is nothing to suggest that the index has reached its nadir”.

For readers who are unfamiliar with the technical terms or tools referred to in the comments on the technical condition of the CCi30 Index can avail themselves of a brief tutorial titled, Tools of Technical Analysis and the three part Andrews Pitchfork Series available on my website.

www.themarketscompass.com

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software allows the Technical Rankings to be calculated and back tested.

The Market's Compass US Index and Sector ETF Study

The Market's Compass — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 11:02:09 GMT

Welcome to The Market’s Compass US Index and Sector ETF Study, Week #598. As always it highlights the technical changes of the 30 US Index and Sector ETFs that I track on a weekly basis and normally publish every third week. Past publications can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Techn…

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

The Market's Compass — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 18:30:38 GMT

Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study #245. The Study tracks the technical condition of sixteen of the larger market cap cryptocurrencies. Every week the Studies will highlight the technical changes of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I track as well as highlights on noteworthy moves in individual Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. Past publications including the Weekly ETF Studies can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the Sixteen Individual Cryptocurrencies

The Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking fell again, for the fourth week in a row, down -26.94% to 179 after falling -18.60% the week before to 245 and is down -60.9% from 457.5 five weeks ago, which was the highest reading in the SSTTR since October of last year. Last week’s SSTTR reading of 179 marked the lowest level since March 27th reading of 158.

Last week only two of the Sweet Sixteen TRs gained de minimis ground, two were unchanged, and twelve TRs fell. Only one Crypto Currency TRs ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs between 35 and 50) and that was Stellar (XLM), one ended the week in the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5), and fourteen were in the “red zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). The previous week when there were two TRs in the “green zone”, four were in the “blue zone” and ten were in “red zone”. The Average TR loss on the week was -4.3, adding to the previous week’s Average TR loss of -3.5 and a loss of - 5.66 three weeks ago.

**The 13-Week Exponential Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1^st**

*The 13-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lines smooths what can be “choppy” Technical Rankings and better defines trend. in the TRs. Changes in the EMA trends with follow-through are signals worthy of consideration.

Tron’s (TRX) 13-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of its TR continues to climb higher maintaining its “pole position” leaving the balance of the Sweet Sixteen TRs 13-Week SMA’s behind. One standout is Stellar’s (XLM) 13-Week SMA which has been rising over the past two weeks.

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

Although Stellar’s (XLM) Relative Strength Momentum started to slow at the end of last week, it nonetheless continues to mark daily improvements in Relative Strength (RS) vs. the benchmark CCi30 Index by registering three weeks of RS gains in a row (see Tabulation Table below) and in turn far outpacing (131.56) the other fifteen cryptos on an RS basis. It has been a grind on a Relative Strength Momentum basis, but Polygon (POL) has made a three Quadrant move by leaving the Lagging Quadrant, passing through the Improving Quadrant to end last week in the Leading Quadrant. A week ago, last Thursday Uniswap (UNI) fell into the Lagging Quadrant and although downside Relative Strength Momentum is starting to slow it is still losing Relative Strength vs. the CCi30 Index.

Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”

Seven Day Absolute % Price Change*

*Friday May 29th to Friday June 5th

Over the past seven days not even one of the Sweet Sixteen gained absolute ground with all cryptos trading sharply lower vs the previous week when one of the Sweet Sixteen gained absolute ground and fifteen traded lower. Last week the average absolute percentage loss was -18.73% with all but one marking double-digit losses. The week before the average 7-Day gain was +2.05% (the average absolute loss would have been -3.35% if not for the +82.98% absolute gain in Stellar). Both weekly average losses and gains exclude the two Indexes.

Year to Date Absolute % Price Change

The Average YTD Absolute % Price Change of The Sweet Sixteen at the end of last week was -33.50%. A nasty across the “broad” drop from the end of the week before when the Average YTD % Price Change was -22.24%.

The Technical Condition Factors

A full explanation of my Technical Condition Factors go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select Crypto Sweet 16.

The Daily Momentum Technical Condition Factor or “DMTCF” fell again for the forth week in a row to a deeply oversold reading of 4.46% or 5 out of a possible 112.

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week over week basis, more of the 16 Cryptocurrencies are improving internally on a technical basis, confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if more of the TCFs fall on a week over week basis, more of the “Cryptos” are deteriorating on a technical basis confirming the broader market move lower. At the end of last week seven of the TCFs showed decreases, and one was higher confirming the broader market move lower.

The Weekly CCi30 Index and The Weekly Stochastic Momentum Index, MACD, and The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or“TSSTCF” Oscillator*

The “TSSTCF” Oscillator tallies the eight objective Technical Condition Factors into one overbought / oversold indicator that ranges between 0 and 8.

The sub-title to the end of May, Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study, published to my Substack Blog a week ago was “Hanging on by a Thread”. That thread unraveled and the CCi30 Index dropped like a stone over the course of the week. It first dropped below the Lower Parallel (solid violet line) of the Standard Pitchfork (violet P1 through P3) that had supported pullbacks in the counter trend rally since the February 6th low at violet P1. The second was a violation of price support at the 10,200 level. When the counter trend 14-week rally was capped at the 12,380 level and fell to the Lower Parallel a drew a new short-term Schiff Pitchfork (light green P1 through P3), but I did not extend it backwards to avoid “overforking” the chart. Nonetheless, at the end of the week the Median Line (green dotted line) did offer a measure of support but both the shorter-term Stochastic Momentum Index continues to track lower below its signal line and longer-term MACD is starting to roll over in negative territory with nary a suggestion that downside price momentum has run its course. Add to that, The Total Technical Condition Factor Indicator has fallen back below both now falling moving averages.

The CCi30 Index Daily Candlestick Chart with Momentum Oscillators

The Daily chart reveals last week’s break of Cloud and multiple price support in what can only be called impulsive liquidation. Both Daily momentum oscillators are tracking lower below their signal lines. The Sweet Sixteen Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator has reached an extreme oversold condition but that is outweighed by the other negative technical factors. I expect a short-term oversold rally but there is nothing to suggest that the index has reached its nadir.

www.themarketscompass.com

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software allows the Technical Rankings to be calculated and back tested.

Engineering News Record Materials Price Index, Building Cost Index, and Construction Metals Prices

The Market's Compass — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 16:47:10 GMT

Engineering News Record (ENR) history that can be traced back to 1874. The publication has its roots in two separate publications, Engineer & Surveyor and The Plumber and Sanitary Engineer. The first issue of Engineering News-Record was published on April 5, 1917. On January 1st, 1987, the acronym ENR was adopted as the title of the bi-weekly magazine. The charts that follow use data that are courtesy of ENR magazine that is published 26 times a year. Historical data was pulled from microfiche copies of the magazine obtained from the New York Public Library. ENR magazine is only a small portion of the products offered by Engineer News Record and we recommend readers, particularly those with an interest in engineering and construction, take the time to view the ENR website to learn more at…https://www.enr.com/

ENR Materials Price Index

The ENR Materials Cost Index rose +2% this month to a new record high and is up +6.53% from this time last year.

ENR Building Cost Index

The ENR Building Cost Index also notched a new high and is up +1.2% versus the previous month and +4.09% relative to year ago level.

Aluminum Sheet

The ENR 20-City Average Price of Aluminum Sheet is up +3.3% MoM and +24.08% from this time last year.

Stainless Steel

The ENR 20-City Average Price of 16 Guage Stainless Steel Sheet rose to a new high in May from April, up +1.9% to 374.01 and up +11.90% YoY.

I Beams

The 20-City Average Price of 6” Deep I Beams rose +3.2% last month (also to a record price high) and is up +10.05% from this time last year.

Re Bar

Although the ENR 20-City Average Price of Re Bar is still below the September 2004 price level, it nonetheless is quickly catching up and rose +3.2% in May and is up 7.76% from twelve months ago.

Data is courtesy of Engineering News Record

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software enables anyone to visualize any price data. To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…

www.optuma.com/TMC.

The Market’s Compass Developed Markets Country ETF Study

The Market's Compass — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:04:03 GMT

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

The Market's Compass — Sun, 31 May 2026 16:36:07 GMT

Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study #244. The Study tracks the technical condition of sixteen of the larger market cap cryptocurrencies. Every week the Studies will highlight the technical changes of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I track as well as highlights on noteworthy moves in individual Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. Past publications including the Weekly ETF Studies can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the Sixteen Individual Cryptocurrencies

The Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking fell for the third week in a row, down -18.60% to 245 after falling -23.12% the week before to 301 and was down -46.5% from 457.5 four weeks ago, which was the highest reading in the SSTTR since October of last year.

Last week only two of the Sweet Sixteen TRs gained ground, one was unchanged, and thirteen TRs fell. The standout TR gainer was Stellar (XLM). Two of the Crypto Currency TRs ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs between 35 and 50), four were in the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5), and ten were in the “red zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). The previous week when there were two TRs in the “green zone”, four were in the “blue zone” and ten were in “red zone”. The Average TR loss on the week was -3.5, adding to the previous week’s Average TR loss of -5.66. If it were not for the TR gain of +29.5 in XLM the average TR loss would have been -5.7 (more on Stellar’s “monster” TR move and price rally later in today’s Study).

**The 13-Week Exponential Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1^st**

Tron’s (TRX) Technical Ranking 13-Week EMA trend continues to consistently outpace the Sweet Sixteen Crypto Currencies that I track in these pages despite last week’s slight slowing. Only Binance (BNB) registered a higher 13-Week EMA in January but contracted until it began to improve in early April. Bitcoin (BTC) has been a Technical Ranking 13-Week EMA leader since the start of the year but has begun to roll over. Dogecoin’s (DOGE) 13-Week EMA has accelerated since late March, but it too has begun to slow. Stellar’s (XLM) Technical Ranking, and in turn, its EMA was beginning to look concerning two weeks ago before last week’s sharp turn higher. The balance of the Sweet Sixteen 13-Week EMAs of TRs continue to trend lower.

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

I normally stick to my technical analysis “knitting”, but I feel I must stray from my normal analysis and clarify what I referred to as the “monster” move in Stellar (XLM). Responding to reports of DTCC’s (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) announcement of a collaboration with the Stellar Development Foundation, XLM rallied more than 80% over the past seven days with the bulk of the move occurring since last Wednesday (more on that later in the Study). That price move drove XLM out of the Improving Quadrant into the Leading Quadrant exhibiting historically unmatched Relative Strength Momentum (as can be seen by the distance between the daily nodes since the middle of last week). Even though Cosmos (ATOM) has begun to roll over for the second time in the Leading Quadrant in the past two weeks it nonetheless still commanded the highest Relative Strength Ratio vs. the CCi30 Index at the end of last week at 105.78 (see the Tabulation Table below). A week ago, last Wednesday Uniswap (UNI) fell out of the Leading Quadrant into the Weakening Quadrant and gathered a pace at the end of last week displaying negative Relative Strength Momentum and fell into the Lagging Quadrant.

Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”

Seven Day Absolute % Price Change*

*Friday May 22nd to Friday May 29th

Over the past seven days only one of the Sweet Sixteen gained absolute ground and fifteen traded lower vs the previous week when two of the Sweet Sixteen gained absolute ground and fourteen traded lower. Last week the average absolute percentage gain was +2.05% (the average absolute loss would have been -3.35% if not for the +82.98% absolute gain in Stellar) The average percentage loss the week before was -4.50%. Both weekly average gains and losses exclude the two Indexes.

Year to Date Absolute % Price Change

The Technical Condition Factors

A full explanation of my Technical Condition Factors go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select Crypto Sweet 16.

The Daily Momentum Technical Condition Factor or “DMTCF” fell again to an oversold reading of 12.50% or 14 out of a possible 112 from an almost overbought reading of 86.61% reading or 97 four weeks ago.

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week over week basis, more of the 16 Cryptocurrencies are improving internally on a technical basis, confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if more of the TCFs fall on a week over week basis, more of the “Cryptos” are deteriorating on a technical basis confirming the broader market move lower. At the end of last week five of the TCFs marked decreases, one was unchanged and two rose.

The Weekly CCi30 Index and The Weekly Stochastic Momentum Index, MACD, and The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or“TSSTCF” Oscillator*

The “TSSTCF” Oscillator tallies the eight objective Technical Condition Factors into one overbought / oversold indicator that ranges between 0 and 8.

The sub-title to the Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study three weeks ago was “More Hurdles Ahead”. Those price hurdles remain in place and capped a continuation of the uptrend attempt in the Weekly chart. This week’s subtitle is “Hanging on By a Thread”. After being capped at the 12,380 level in the CCi30 Index the prices have returned to support at the Lower Parallel (solid violet line) of the shorter-term Standard Pitchfork (violet P1 through P3). The 8-Week Stochastic Momentum Index has rolled over through its signal line and has begun to track lower. Although MACD continues to climb away from oversold territory, its ascent is beginning to slow. The Total Technical Condition Crypto Factor Oscillator has fallen below both the now falling 5-Week Exponential Moving Average (red line) and has just edged below 21-Week Simple Moving Average (blue line). If the Lower Parallel of Pitchfork fails to support prices a quick test of price support at 10,200 is likely in the cards. Maybe the sub-title should be “Feet Don’t Fail Me Now”.

www.themarketscompass.com

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software allows the Technical Rankings to be calculated and back tested.

The Market's Compass Emerging Markets Country ETF Study

The Market's Compass — Tue, 26 May 2026 11:03:07 GMT

Welcome to The Market’s Compass Emerging Market’s Country ETF Study, Week #597. As always, it highlights the technical changes of the 20 EM Country ETFs that I track on a weekly basis and publish every third week. Paid subscribers will receive this week’s unabridged Emerging Market’s Country ETF Study sent to their registered e-mail. Past publications c…

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

The Market's Compass — Mon, 25 May 2026 11:03:24 GMT

In Observance of Memorial Day I pay tribute to my Father and Mother.

Warner Windom Brackett was born in Ridgewood, NJ in 1914 and graduated from the
New York Military Academy in 1932. He voluntarily enlisted into the Army’s Cavalry and training at Ft. Riley, KS eventually earning the rank of Captain. He served in the (86th. Division) in the Ruhr Pocket in March of 1945 and liberated the Attendorn civilian forced labor camp in Germany. A civilian and inactive reservist he received a letter (1951) asking if he was willing to again serve in the Army. He volunteered and as a Captain was then deployed to South Korea for eight months.

My mother, Ruth Foster Brackett, spent many years volunteering at several charitable organizations and decided in 1943 to volunteer to work at the American Red Cross. She trained at Bellevue Hospital, NYC, NY and at their main headquarters in Washington, DC with assignment as a Hospital Recreation Aid. Her deployment overseas during wartime meant she was given the rank of Second Lieutenant in the case she was ever captured! She left from Texas and spent 1 year in US hospital outside Paris, France. Before her return to the States she met Warner,
a childhood friend, for a visit in Paris. They eventually got married in September 1946!

Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study #243. The Study tracks the technical condition of sixteen of the larger market cap cryptocurrencies. Every week the Studies will highlight the technical changes of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I track as well as highlights on noteworthy moves in individual Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. Past publications including the Weekly ETF Studies can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the Sixteen Individual Cryptocurrencies

The Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking fell back for the second week in a row, down 23.12% to 301 after falling 14.43% the week before to 391.5 last week from 457.5 three weeks ago, which was the highest reading in the SSTTR since October of last year.

Last week three of the Sweet Sixteen TRs gained ground, one was unchanged, and twelve TRs fell. Two of the Crypto Currency TRs ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs between 35 and 50), four were in the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5), and ten were in the “red zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). Eight of the ten fell into the “red zone” from the “blue zone”. Both Polygon (POL) and Stellar (XLM) remained in the “red zone” for the second week in a row. The previous week when there were two TRs in the “green zone” and twelve were in the “blue zone” and, as mentioned above, two were in “red zone”. The Average TR loss on the week was -5.66 adding to the previous week’s Average TR loss of -4.13.

The 13-Week Exponential Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1^st

*The 13-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lines smooths what can be “choppy” Technical Rankings and better define trend. Changes in the EMA trends with follow-through are signals worthy of consideration.

Since the start of the year, Tron’s (TRX) Technical Ranking EMA trend has consistently outpaced the Sweet Sixteen Crypto Currencies that we track in these pages by a “long shot”. Only Binance (BNB) registered a higher 13-Week EMA in January but contracted until it began to improve in early April. Bitcoin (BTC) has been a Technical Ranking EMA leader since the start of the year. Dogecoin’s (DOGE) 13-Week EMA has accelerated since late March. Stellar’s (XLM) Technical Ranking and in turn, its EMA is beginning to look problematic.

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

After a stutter step into the Lagging Quadrant Tron (TRX) rose sharply into the Leading Quadrant at the end of the week exhibiting noteworthy Relative Strength Momentum at 102.45 and the highest Relative Strength Ratio at 103.88 (see the Tabulation Table below). Binance (BNB)has made what I call, a “three quadrants move” by rising out of the Laging Quadrant through the Improving Quadrant, displaying strengthening Relative Strength Momentum (note the distance between the daily nodes). and into the Leading Quadrant despite a slight loss of momentum at weeks end. Uniswap (UNI) has done a U-turn and has fallen out of the Leading Quadrant and into the Weakening Quadrant. Polygon has made a negative “three quadrants move” over the past two weeks by initially falling out of the Leading Quadrant through the Weakening Quadrant and spending last week grinding sideways in the Lagging Quadrant before a slight upturn at the end of the week.

Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”

The “Tabulation Table” below marks the Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum readings of the Sweet Sixteen vs. the CCi30 Index at the end of last week and the end of the two preceding weeks. If there has been an improvement in either the Relative Strength Ratio or the Relative Strength Momentum reading since the end of the preceding week, I have highlighted it in green. If there has been a contraction in either it is highlighted in red and an unchanged reading in either will remain black*. The color-coding system has served as a heat map over the past three weeks highlighting either the continued improvement, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark CCi30 Index. The crypto currencies that are in the comments below the RRG chart are highlighted in blue.

*Tip of the hat goes to my son-in-law, RJ Hausler, who has now programed the color changes in Excel for me.

Seven Day Absolute % Price Change*

*Friday May 15th to Friday May 22nd

Over the past seven days only two of the Sweet Sixteen gained absolute ground and fourteen traded lower vs the previous week when four of the Sweet Sixteen gained absolute ground and twelve traded lower. Three weeks ago, the CCi30 Index, the Sweet Sixteen Index and all the individual Sweet Sixteen Crypto Currencies registered absolute price gains. Last week the average absolute percentage loss was -4.50%, adding to the average percentage loss the week before of -2.22%. Both weekly average gains and losses exclude the two Indexes.

The Technical Condition Factors

A full explanation of my Technical Condition Factors go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select Crypto Sweet 16.

The Daily Momentum Technical Condition Factor or “DMTCF” fell back to 20.54% or 23 out of a possible 112 from an almost overbought reading of 86.61% reading or 97 three weeks ago.

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week over week basis, more of the 16 Cryptocurrencies are improving internally on a technical basis, confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if more of the TCFs fall on a week over week basis, more of the “Cryptos” are deteriorating on a technical basis confirming the broader market move lower. At the end of last week six of the TCFs marked decreases, one was unchanged and only one rose.

The Weekly CCi30 Index and The Weekly Stochastic Momentum Index, MACD, and The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or“TSSTCF” Oscillator*

The “TSSTCF” Oscillator tallies the eight objective Technical Condition Factors into one overbought / oversold indicator that ranges between 0 and 8.

The sub-title to last week’s Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study was “More Hurdles Ahead”. Those price hurdles remain in place and have capped a continuation of the uptrend in the Weekly chart. Although the CCi30 Index stuck its head above price resistance at the 12,390 level the Kijun Plot (falling green line) forced prices back below price resistance and last week the index pulled back further but managed to hold above the rising Lower Parallel (solid violet line) of the shorter-term Standard Pitchfork (violet P1 through P3). The Stochastic Momentum Index has in turn hooked slightly lower but it would be premature to suggest that it an end to the recovery from the P1 price pivot low. Loger-term MACD on the other hand continues to climb above its signal line away from oversold territory. Although the Total Technical Condition Crypto Factor Oscillator has dropped below its shorter-term 5-Week Moving Average (red line) it did not print a lower low and remains above it rising longer-term 21-Week Moving Average (blue line).

Only a drop below the Lower Parallel and in turn a violation of price support at 10,200 would suggest that the 15-week rally was a counter trend rally and that the early February lows did not mark the nadir in the CCi30 Index.

The CCi30 Index Daily Candlestick Chart with Momentum Oscillators

There are more than a few technical features on the Daily chart that are concerning. Foremost is the price action last Friday which failed again to close above both the Kijun (green line) and Tenkan (red line) Plots as well as price resistance at the 11,910 level and a price reversal unfolded that broke potential support at the Lower Warning Line (violet dashed line) of the longer-term Standard Pitchfork (violet P1 through P3) and the Lower Parallel (solid gold line) of the newly drawn Schiff Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3). Also, MACD is tracking lower below its signal line and is in danger of entering negative territory. The Stochastic Momentum Index’s rise from oversold territory has rolled over and the Sweet Sixteen Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator’s turn higher was derailed by its 5-Day Moving Average and has hooked lower.

Needless to say, these technical features have likely disheartened the bulls and that barring a sharp reversal Cloud and price support at the 11,135.00 will be tested.

www.themarketscompass.com

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software allows the Technical Rankings to be calculated and back tested.

Engineering News Record Construction Material Prices, Aluminum Sheet, Concrete Block, Copper Water Tubing, and Corrugated Steel Pipe Prices Jump to Record Highs in April

The Market's Compass — Wed, 20 May 2026 13:40:28 GMT

Aluminum Sheet

The ENR 20-City Average Price of Aluminum Sheet is up 27.24% over the past twelve months.

Concrete Block

The 20-City Average Price of Lightweight Concrete Block is up 19.35% from this time last year, registering an all-time high.

Copper Water Tubing

The 20-City Average Price of 1 1/2 Inch Copper Water Tubing is up 15.56% since last April.

Corrugated Steel Pipe

The ENR 20-City Average Price of 36” Corrugated Steel Pipe rose to a record 96.34 per foot at the end of April.

Data is courtesy of Engineering News Record

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software enables anyone to visualize any price data. To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…

www.optuma.com/TMC.

The Market's Compass US Index and Sector ETF Study

The Market's Compass — Mon, 18 May 2026 10:57:12 GMT

Welcome to The Market’s Compass US Index and Sector ETF Study, Week #595. As always it highlights the technical changes of the 30 US Index and Sector ETFs that I track on a weekly basis and normally publish every third week. Past publications can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the 30 Individual U.S. Index and Sector ETFs

To understand the methodology used in constructing the objective U.S. Index and Sector ETF Individual Technical Rankings visit the MC’s Technical Indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and go to “us etfs”. What follows is a Cliff Notes version* of the full explanation…

The Total Technical Ranking or “TER” of the U.S. Index and Sector ETFs fell -15.56% last week to 826 for the fourth week in a row from the recent pinnacle of 1075 for the week ending April 17th, which was the best level since February 27th (1103.5).

Ony five ETFs registered increases in their TRs last week, and twenty-five ETF TRs fell. Of those twenty- five, seven dropped double digits. Thirteen ETF TRs ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs from 35 to 50), eleven ended the week in the “blue zone” (TRs from 15.5 to 34.5), and six were in the “red zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). The previous week there were sixteen TRs in the “green zone”, eleven were in the “blue zone”, and three were in the “red zone”. The average TR loss on the week was -5.78, adding to the week before average TR loss of -0.88.

Relative Strength and Weakness in the Developed Markets ETFs vs. the URTH utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph

The Relative Rotation Graph, commonly referred to as RRGs were developed in 2004-2005 by Julius de Kempenaer. These charts are a unique visualization tool for relative strength analysis. Chartists can use RRGs to analyze the relative strength trends of several securities against a common benchmark, (in this case the SPX Index) and against each other over any given time period (in the case below, daily) over the past three weeks. The power of RRG is its ability to plot relative performance on one graph and show true rotation. All RRGs charts use four quadrants to define the four phases of a relative trend. The Optuma RRG charts uses, From Leading (in green) to Weakening (in yellow) to Lagging (in pink) to Improving (in blue) and back to Leading (in green). True rotations can be seen as securities move from one quadrant to the other over time. This is only a brief explanation of how to interpret RRG charts. To learn more, see the post scripts and links at the end of this Blog.

Not all 30 US Index and Sector ETFs are plotted in this RRG Chart. I have done this for clarity purposes. Those which I believe are of higher technical interest remain.

Aside from the recent tepid Relative Strength Momentum in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) it still remained in the pole position on a Relative Strength basis vs. the SPX at the end of last week and the preceding three weeks (see the Tabulation Table below). Despite a slowing of downside negative Relative Strength Momentum last week, the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) registered the worst Relative Strength Ratio reading (93.24) of the thirty ETFs I track in the Study, at weeks end. The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), which fell into the Lagging Quadrant three weeks ago, exhibiting downside negative Relative Strength Momentum, turned higher and during the second half of last week it gathered enough upside positive Relative Strength Momentum with the best reading (102.02) of the Sweet Sixteen to enter the Improving Quadrant.

The U.S. Index and Sector ETFs Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”.

The Relative Strength and Relative Strength “Tabulation Table” begins with the readings at the end of last week followed by the trailing three weeks that includes the Readings from the last Study. If there has been an improvement in either the Relative Strength Ratio or the Relative Strength Momentum reading on a week-over-week basis I have highlighted it in green. If there has been a contraction in either, it is highlighted in red and an unchanged reading in either will remain in black. Both the Relative Strength Ratio and Relative Strength Momentum number are, although not shown on the table, are percent valuations vs. the benchmark at weeks end. The color-coding system serves as a heat map over the past four Friday’s readings highlighting either the continued improvement, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark, the SPX Index.

**The Technical Condition Factor* Changes over the past week and previous 8 weeks**

*The Technical Condition Factors are derived from a calculation of the total Individual US Index and Sector ETF Technical Rankings. What is shown in the excel panel below is the total TCFs of all thirty TRs. A few TCFs carry more weight than the others, such as the Weekly Trend Factor and the Weekly Momentum Factor in compiling each individual TR of each of the 30 ETFs. Because of that, the excel sheet below calculates each factor’s weekly reading as a percentage of the possible total.

To fully understand the construction the of The Technical Condition Factors visit the MC’s Technical Indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and go to “us etfs”.

One technical takeaway would be, for example, if the Daily Momentum Condition Technical Factor or DMCTF rose to an extreme between 85% and 100%, it would suggest a short-term overbought condition. Conversely, a reading in the range of 0% to 15% would suggest an oversold condition was developing.

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week over week basis, more of the 30 ETFs are improving internally on a technical basis confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely if all eight TCFs fell over the week it confirms a move lower in the broader market. Last week all eight TCFs fell confirming the broad-based technical weakness at the end of the week.

The Weekly Absolute and Relative Price % Change

The Weekly Candlestick and Cloud Chart with The Stochastic Momentum Index and The Average Technical Ranking of the 30 US Index and Sector ETFs

The Weekly Average Technical Ranking (“ATR”) is the average Technical Ranking of the 30 US Index and Sector ETFs we track. It is a confirmation/divergence as well as an overbought/oversold indicator.

The second Upper Warning Line (UWL2) capped last week’s rally in the S&P 500 Index endorsing the validity of the vector of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3). Despite the new high, last week’s Doji suggests that a measure of indecision has creeped into market participants’ faith regarding an immediate continuation of the rally from the early April lows. The 8-Week Stochastic Momentum Index reveals that the large-cap index is overbought and stretched as well as the US Average Technical Ranking which has, after failing to confirm the rally in prices to a new closing high on a weekly basis (red dashed line), has fallen back below both the longer-term 45-Week EMA (blue line) shorter-term 9-Week SMA (red line). It has been folly to argue with impulsive rally in the SPX, but it appears that a correction of a larger degree than we have witnessed since April is in the cards.

For readers who are unfamiliar with the technical terms or tools referred to in the comments on the technical condition of the SPX can avail themselves of a brief tutorial titled, Tools of Technical Analysis and an in-depth comprehensive lesson on Pitchforks is available on my website…

www.themarketscompass.com

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software allows the Technical Rankings to be calculated and back tested.

To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…

www.optuma.com/TMC

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

The Market's Compass — Sun, 17 May 2026 17:00:01 GMT

Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study #242. The Study tracks the technical condition of sixteen of the larger market cap cryptocurrencies. Every week the Studies will highlight the technical changes of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I track as well as highlights on noteworthy moves in individual Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. Past publications including the Weekly ETF Studies can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the Sixteen Individual Cryptocurrencies

The Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking fell back 14.43% to 391.5 last week from 457.5 the previous week which was the highest highest reading in the SSTTR since October of last year.

Last week four of the Sweet Sixteen TRs gained ground and twelve TRs pulled back. Two of the Crypto Currency TRs ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs between 35 and 50), twelve were in the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5), and two fell into the “red zone” (TRs between 0 and 15), (Stellar (XLM) and Polygon (POL). That was a decrease from the previous week when there were four TRs in the “green zone” and twelve were in the “blue zone”. The Average TR loss on the week was -4.13, reversing a portion of the previous week’s Average TR gain of +10.28.

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

Dogecoin (DOGE) began to roll over in the Leading Quadrant a week ago last Wednesday losing Relative Strength Momentum. Early last week the pace of the decline accelerated (note the distance between the daily nodes) as it fell into Weakening Quadrant losing additional Relative Strength. Uniswap (UNI) rose out of the Improving Quadrant last Sunday gaining both Relative Strength Momentum and Relative Strength and at the end of last week it registered the best Relative Strength Ratio of the Sweet Sixteen vs. the CCi30 Index (see the Tabulation Table below). In its wake was ChainLink (LINK) when it made what I refer to as a positive “three quadrant move” by leaving the Lagging Quadrant passing through the Improving Quadrant and entering the Leading Quadrant early last week.

Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”

Seven Day Absolute % Price Change*

*Friday May 8th to Friday May 15th

Over the past seven days four of the Sweet Sixteen gained absolute ground and twelve traded lower vs, the previous week when the CCi30 Index, the Sweet Sixteen Index and all the Sweet Sixteen registered absolute price gains. Last week the average absolute percentage loss was -2.22% erasing a little less than a third of the average percentage gain the week before of gain of +6.81%. Both weekly average gains and losses exclude the two Indexes.

The Technical Condition Factors

A full explanation of my Technical Condition Factors go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select Crypto Sweet 16.

The Daily Momentum Technical Condition Factor or “DMTCF” fell back to 47.32% or 53 out of a possible 112 from an almost overbought reading of 86.61% reading or 97 two weeks ago.

The Weekly CCi30 Index and The Weekly Stochastic Momentum Index, MACD, and The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or“TSSTCF” Oscillator*

The “TSSTCF” Oscillator tallies the eight objective Technical Condition Factors into one overbought / oversold indicator that ranges between 0 and 8.

The CCi30 Index ended the week at the best level (12,369.20) since the end of January. On an intra-week basis, it stuck its head above potential price resistance at April 11, 2025, P2 price pivot low for the second week in a row but, pulled back late in the week. I have added a second shorter-term Andrews Pitchfork (violet P1 through P3). The rising Lower Parallel (solid violet line) marks important trend support. The 8-Week Stochastic Momentum Index has continued to climb higher above its signal line and the longer-term momentum measure, MACD, continues to work its way higher above its signal line but remains in negative territory. Although the Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor pulled back at the end of last week it remains in an uptrend above both rising moving averages.

Key price resistance at 12,380, the falling Kijun Plot (green line), and the falling Upper Parallel (solid gold line) of the longer-term Standard Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3) remain important hurdles that the Index needs to overtake to definitively be able to say that the CCi30 Index is indeed “out of the woods”.

The CCi30 Index Daily Candlestick Chart with Momentum Oscillators

After the CCi30 Index broke out of the 3-month sideways trading range brought forth on the daily chart by surpassing the 11,910 level and remaining above it I added a Standard Pitchfork (violet P1 through P3) to monitor the potentially developing price trend from the P1 price pivot low. Late last week price dutifully held support offered by the Lower Parallel (solid violet line) of that Pitchfork in concert with support supplied by the previous break out level at 11,910 and the flattening Kijun Plot (sold green line). MACD remains above its signal line in positive territory, but the shorter-term 8-Day Stochastic Momentum Index has pulled back from near overbought territory which is thus far is not a concern as it works off the near overbought condition without significant price damage. Of more technical concern is the dropping Sweet Sixteen Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator (“SSMOMRANK”) which was capped by the longer-term moving average. That said, if the low in the “SSMOMRANK” remains above the low it reached on April 29^th, at the P3 pivot low and the price breakout level at the 11,910 level it will ameliorate any technical concern regarding the price trend. Next week’s price action will be telling.

www.themarketscompass.com

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software allows the Technical Rankings to be calculated and back tested.

To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…

The Market’s Compass Developed Markets Country ETF Study

The Market's Compass — Mon, 11 May 2026 11:03:11 GMT

Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Developed Markets Country (DMC) ETF Study #593. It highlights the technical changes of the 21 DM Country ETFs that I track on a weekly basis and publish every third week. There are three ETF Studies that include the Market’s Compass US Index and Sector (USIS) ETF Study, the Developed Markets Country (DMC) ETF Study and the Emerging Markets Country (EMC) ETF Study. The three Studies are normally published every three weeks and are sent to my paid Substack subscriber’s email. A total of 71 ETFs are covered in the three Studies. There is also a Weekly publication that is sent to paid subscribers every Sunday titled The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study that tracks the technical condition of sixteen of the larger cap Cryptocurrencies.

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the 21 Individual DM Country ETFs

To understand the methodology used in constructing the objective DM Country ETF Individual Technical Rankings visit the mc’s technical indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and select “dm country etfs”. What follows is a Cliff Notes version* of the full explanation…

The Total DM Technical Ranking rose last week with a 9.39% rise to 786 from the week before reading of 718.5 which was a 7.88% jump from 666 three weeks ago.

As of Friday’s close, sixteen DM ETF TRs gained ground on a weekly basis and five fell. Thirteen ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs between 35 and 50) and eight ending the week in the “blue zone” (from 15.5 to 34.5) For the fifth week in a row there were no TRs in the “red zone” (from 0 to 15). Two weeks ago, there were eleven ETF TRs in the “green zone” and there were ten TRs in the “blue zone”. The average TR gain for the week was +3.21 vs. the previous week’s average TR gain of +2.5.

Relative Strength and Weakness in the Developed Markets ETFs vs. the URTH utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph

The Relative Rotation Graph, commonly referred to as RRGs were developed in 2004-2005 by Julius de Kempenaer. These charts are a unique visualization tool for relative strength analysis. Chartists can use RRGs to analyze the relative strength trends of several securities against a common benchmark, (in this case the URTH) and against each other over any given time period (in the case below, daily) over the past three weeks. The power of RRG is its ability to plot relative performance on one graph and show true rotation. All RRGs charts use four quadrants to define the four phases of a relative trend. The Optuma RRG charts uses, from Leading (in green) to Weakening (in yellow) to Lagging (in pink) to Improving (in blue) and back to Leading (in green). True rotations can be seen as securities move from one quadrant to the other over time. This is only a brief explanation of how to interpret RRG charts. To learn more, see the post scripts and links at the end of this Blog.

Not all 21 ETFs are plotted in this RRG Chart. I have done this for clarity purposes. Those which I believe are of higher technical interest remain.

Two weeks ago the iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS) fell directly into the Lagging Quadrant from the Leading Quadrant but a sharp turnaround developed and last week the EIS accelerated back into the Leading Quadrant exhibiting a complete flip in Relative Strength Momentum, The EIS ended last week with the best Relative Strength Ratio vs. the iShares MSCI World ETF or URTH of the 21 DM ETFs (see the Tabulation Table below). The iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund ETF (EWJ) has made a three Quadrant move over the past three weeks. After falling from the Weakening Quadrant into the Lagging Quadrant it turned last week and entered the Improving Quadrant. The iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund ETF (EWH) turned higher in the Lagging Quadrant two weeks ago and built a head a stream and rose into the Improving Quadrant during the second half of last week.

The Develped Markets Country ETF Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”.

The Relative Strength and Relative Strength “Tabulation Table” begins with the readings at the end of last week followed by the trailing three weeks that includes the Readings from the last Study. If there has been an improvement in either the Relative Strength Ratio or the Relative Strength Momentum reading on a week-over-week basis I have highlighted it in green. If there has been a contraction in either, it is highlighted in red and an unchanged reading in either will remain in black. The color-coding system serves as a heat map over the past four Friday’s readings highlighting either the continued improvement, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark, the URTH. The ETFs that are displayed on the RRG chart above have the Symbol and ETF Short Name highlighted in blue below.

**The Technical Condition Factor* Changes over the past week and previous 8 weeks**

*To understand the construction the of The Technical Condition Factors or TCFs visit the mc’s technical indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and select “dm country etfs”. For those who unfamililar a shortened version* is explained below…

*The Technical Condition Factors are utilized in the calculation of the Individual DM Country ETF Technical Rankings. What is shown in the excel panel below is the total TCFs of all twenty-one TRs. A few TCFs carry more weight than the others, such as the Weekly Trend Factor and the Weekly Momentum Factor in compiling each individual TR of each of the twenty-one ETFs. Also, the TCFs number of inputs vary. Because of that, the excel sheet below calculates each factor’s weekly reading as a percentage of the possible total which normalizes the inputs. The basic explanation is that the eight TCFs can range between 0% and 100%.

The Daily Momentum Technical Condition Factor (“DMTCF”) rose to 70.78 or 109 last week from 57.14% or 88 the previous week,

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week over week basis, more of the 21 ETFs are improving internally on a technical basis, confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if more of the 21 TCFs fall on a week over week basis, more of the ETFs are deteriorating on a technical basis confirming the broader market move lower. On a week-over-week basis five TCFs rose, and three fell.

The URTH with This Week’s Total DM ETF Ranking “DMTER” Overlaid

An explanation of The Total DM Technical Ranking Indicator and the technical interpretation of it, visit the MC’s Technical Indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com.

It is simply a confirmation/divergence indicator as well as an overbought/oversold indicator.

The iShares MSCI World Index Fund ETF rose to another weekly closing high of 200.64. The DM Total ETF Ranking or DMTER for the third week in a row to 786 but has not come close to confirming the new weekly closing highs. In addition, the 13-Week Moving Average (red line) of the DMTER has continued to fall and has notched a lower low.

The URTH with the Average Technical Ranking of the 21 Developed Markets Country ETFs and Momentum Oscillators charted with a Weekly Candlestick and Cloud Chart

The Weekly Average DM Technical Ranking (“ATR”) in the bottom panel, is the average of the individual Technical Rankings of the 21 Developed Markets Country ETFs I track. Like the TER, it is a confirmation/divergence or overbought/oversold indicator.

It has been hard to argue with the impulsive and constructive price advance over the past six weeks. After two weeks of consolidation the URTH has moved to new highs. In doing so it closed last week just above the Upper Parallel (solid gold line) of the Standard Pitchfork that found its origin in March of 2023 and has contained prices since then notwithstanding the drop below the Lower Parallel in April of last year. MACD reflects the upside price momentum from the early April lows, but the 8-Week Stochastic Momentum Index (center oscillator panel) is approaching over-bought territory but as can be seen by looking back to the third quarter of last year while prices grind higher. Aside from a brief pullback, two weeks ago the Average Technical Ranking or ATR confirmed the rally from the early April lows but the 13-Week Moving Average of the ATR (red line) has yet to turn higher.

The Weekly Absolute and Relative Price % Change*

*From Friday May 1st to Friday May 8th

Sixteen of the Developed Markets Country ETFs I track in these pages were up on an absolute basis and five were down over the past week. Nine of the DM ETFs outpaced the +1.97% gain in the iShares MSCI World ETF or URTH last week and twelve underperformed, that was vs. the week before when twelve outperformed and nine underperformed the +0.76% gain in the URTH. The five-day average absolute price change was +1.76%, adding to the previous week’s average price gain of +1.07%.

Thoughts on the Short-term Technical Condition of the URTH

After a week ago last Thursday’s rally to a new closing high that suggested that the short-term price consolidation had reached its terminus, I added a new Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3). Aside from a minor violation last Monday, prices held support at the Lower Parallel (lower solid gold line). The price consolidation worked off a measure of the short-term overbought condition reflected by the pullback in the Stochastic Momentum Index. I find it technically positive when that happens and there is very little price damage. MACD avoided a drop below its signal and is edging higher again. The DM Country ETF Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator printed a lower high (black dashed vertical line) at the P2 price pivot high giving fair warning of the price pullback / consolidation and has turned higher again since the P3 price pivot low with the 9-Day Moving Average (red line) set to retake the ground back above the 45-Day Exponential Moving Average (blue line).

Only a break of Lower Parallel support would suggest that a correction of a larger degree could unfold with a test of key support at the 192.84 level possible.

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

The Market's Compass — Sun, 10 May 2026 14:03:17 GMT

Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study #241. The Study tracks the technical condition of sixteen of the larger market cap cryptocurrencies. Every week the Studies will highlight the technical changes of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I track as well as highlights on noteworthy moves in individual Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. Past publications including the Weekly ETF Studies can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the Sixteen Individual Cryptocurrencies

The Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking rose +56.14% to 457.5 last week from 293 the previous week. Last week’s SSTTR reading was the highest since October of last year.

Last week all but one of the Sweet Sixteen TRs gained ground, with nine marking double digit gains. Four of the Crypto Currency TRs ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs between 35 and 50) and twelve were in the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5). That was a marked improvement from the previous week when only one (Bitcoin) ended that week in the “green zone”, eight were in the “blue zone” and seven were in the “red zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). The Average TR gain on the week was +10.28, more than reversing the previous week’s Average TR loss of -4.34 and the Average TR loss three weeks ago -3.03.

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

Dogecoin (DOGE) got off to a slow start but a week ago last Tuesday it started its sharp advance out of the Improving Quadrant exhibiting strong upside Relative Strength Momentum (note the distance between the daily nodes) as it tracked higher in the Leading Quadrant until it rolled over in the middle of last week. Despite the loss of Relative Strength Momentum, it held onto the “pole position” on a Relative Strength basis vs. the CCi30 Index at the end of the week (see the Tabulation Table below). Cosmos (ATOM) made a three Quadrant U-turn out of the Leading Quadrant, falling through the Weakening Quadrant at accelerating clip, ending the week in the Lagging Quadrant. Stellar (XLM) fell directly out of the Leading Quadrant and into the Lagging Quadrant at the start of May exhibiting negative Relative Strength Momentum and at the end of last week it registered the worst Relative Strength Ratio of the Sweet Sixteen.

Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”

The “Tabulation Table” below marks the Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum readings of the Sweet Sixteen vs. the CCi30 Index at the end of last week and the two preceding weeks. If there has been an improvement in either the Relative Strength Ratio or the Relative Strength Momentum reading since the preceding week, I have highlighted it in green. If there has been a contraction in either it is highlighted in red and an unchanged reading in either will remain black. The color-coding system has served as a heat map over the past three weeks highlighting either the continued improvement, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark CCi30 Index. The crypto currencies that are in the comments below the RRG chart are highlighted in blue.

Seven Day Absolute % Price Change*

*Friday May 1st to Friday May 8th

The CCi30 Index, The Sweet Sixteen Index and all the Sweet Sixteen registered absolute price gains over the past seven days. Last week the average absolute percentage gain was +6.81% vs. the average percentage loss the week before of -1.37%. Both weekly average gains and losses exclude the two Indexes.

The Technical Condition Factors

A full explanation of my Technical Condition Factors go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select Crypto Sweet 16

The Daily Momentum Technical Condition Factor or “DMTCF” bounced back to an almost overbought reading of 86.61% reading or 97 out of a possible 112 from 39.29% or 44 two weeks ago which was drop from the reading three weeks ago of 71.34%.

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week over week basis, more of the 16 Cryptocurrencies are improving internally on a technical basis, confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if more of the TCFs fall on a week over week basis, more of the “Cryptos” are deteriorating on a technical basis confirming the broader market move lower. Last week all eight of the TCFs moved higher, confirming the rally in the broad-based crypto currency market.

The Weekly CCi30 Index and The Weekly Stochastic Momentum Index, MACD, and The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or“TSSTCF” Oscillator*

The “TSSTCF” Oscillator tallies the eight objective Technical Condition Factors into one overbought / oversold indicator that ranges between 0 and 8.

The CCi30 Index ended the week at the best level (12,310.30) since the end of January. On an intra-week basis, it stuck its head above potential price resistance at April 11, 2025, P2 price pivot low but pulled back late in the week. The 8-Week Stochastic Momentum Index, which I highlighted last week, correctly hinted at the upcoming price advance by not notching a lower low when price did (yellow dashed line) is tracking higher above its signal line. Longer-term MACD also confirms the turn in price momentum as it tracks higher above its signal line. That said, it remains deep in negative territory. The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor has confirmed the start of what may be a move away from key support at the 10,200.00 level by reaching the best level since October third of last year. The 5-Week Moving Average of the Oscillator (redline) is tracking higher and the 21-Week Moving Average (blue line) is beginning to turn up. A follow-through to the rally that can overtake the 12,380.00 will next target the Kijun Plot (green line) and the Upper Parallel (solid gold line) of the Standard Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3).

The CCi30 Index Daily Candlestick Chart with Momentum Oscillators

Today’s Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study is subtitled Finally Out of the Wood’s? There is a question mark at the end of that because there are still a few technical hurdles that the Index needs to vault above. Saing that, Tuesday’s rally out three-month base building price pattern (yellow box) is a major step in the right direction. Key to this being a bona fide break out is that previous price resistance at the 11,910.00 level must hold as newly potential price support and that the Kijun Plot (green line) is not violated. MACD confirms the newly discovered price momentum and is rising above its signal line in positive territory. The 8-Day Stochastic Momentum Index has begun to stall at what has been an over-sold level during the basing price pattern but during previous rallies it has reached the 75.0 level (not shown here). The Sweet Sixteen Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator raped it head at the still falling 45-Day Exponential Moving Average (blue line) but has not printed a lower low and the shorter-term 5-Day Moving Average (red line) is stabilizing.

Key to the terminus of the base-building technical thesis is that prices hold the key support at the 11,910.00 level and the Kijun Plot at 11,675.00.

www.themarketscompass.com

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software allows the Technical Rankings to be calculated and back tested.

To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…

www.optuma.com/TMC

Is Bitcoin on its Way?

The Market's Compass — Tue, 05 May 2026 15:15:46 GMT

I have found over the years, that one sure way to get one’s head chopped off is to stick one’s neck out too early on a given technical thesis, but often the prevailing technical features are compelling enough to take that potentially ill-fated chance. The following presents a case that Bitcoin is on the cusp of a follow-through rally to higher prices and that it can easily rally through resistance at the Kijun Plot (green line) and return to the confines of the longer-term Schiff Modified Pitchfork (red P1 through P3). I’ll first start with the weekly charts…

The weekly Bitcoin price has broken out above the confluence of price resistance at the P3 price pivot low and the January 30th intra-week low at 80,595.20. The panel directly below the price chart is my version of Relative Strength Index which, like RSI, measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in an asset and below that is the Custom Oscillator which is an unbound momentum indicator. Note that in November of last year the MC Oscillator made a low and a second low in late February of this year (light blue horizontal dashed lines) but the Custom Oscillator did not and produced a long-term non-confirmation of the late February price lows.

This second weekly chart adds two different oscillators to the same price chart. The panel below the price panel is the Fisher Transform which is an oscillator based on complex mathematical theories (such as probability density functions) and transforms prices into sine wave that seeks to pinpoint extremes in the market. The tool is made up of a pair of lines moving above and below the central value of zero. One line is the current Fisher Transform value and the other, the trigger line. In early April, The Fisher Transform tested support at the trigger line and has moved sharply higher and is back above the value of zero. The bottom panel contains MACD which is a momentum indicator which should need no definition. It has turned up through its signal line from oversold territory.

The Daily Bitcoin chart shows the bona fide breakout above price resistance on Sunday, and today’s follow-through to just under the Median Line (gold dotted line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork. The Lagging Line, which is the current price (close) shifted back 26 bars (blue line), held support at the Median Line twice and moved out of the Cloud in early April signaling the upcoming trend change. The panel below the price chart is a line chart of the Relative Index Comparison of Bitcoin vs. the broader CCi30 Index*. Aside from a brief spell of weakness in the first half of January Bitcoin has since outperformed the broader index by 13.65%.

Will my head be “chopped off” and is this a false breakout? The current technical evidence suggests no. Only a drop back below 78,725.00 and a pullback that falls back below the lower parallel and Kijun Plot (green line) would suggest that this technical thesis is overly bullish.

www.themarketscompass.com

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software allows the Technical Rankings to be calculated and back tested.

To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…

www.optuma.com/TMC

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

The Market's Compass — Mon, 04 May 2026 19:35:37 GMT

Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study #240. The Study tracks the technical condition of sixteen of the larger market cap cryptocurrencies. Every week the Studies will highlight the technical changes of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I track as well as highlights on noteworthy moves in individual Cryptocurren…

The Market's Compass Emerging Markets Country ETF Study

The Market's Compass — Mon, 04 May 2026 10:03:39 GMT

Welcome to The Market’s Compass Emerging Market’s Country ETF Study, Week #594. As always, it highlights the technical changes of the 20 EM Country ETFs that I track on a weekly basis and publish every third week. Paid subscribers will receive this week’s unabridged Emerging Market’s Country ETF Study sent to their registered e-mail. Past publications can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog. Next week I will be publishing The Market’s Compass Developed Markets Country ETF Study. Later today I will post the latest edition of The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study which I normally publish on Sunday’s, on a weekly basis that tracks the technical changes of sixteen of the larger capitalized Cryptocurrencies.

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the 20 Individual EM Country ETFs

To understand the methodology used in constructing the objective EM Country ETF Individual Technical Rankings visit the mc’s technical indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and select “em country etfs”. What follows is a Cliff Notes version* of the full explanation of the methodology I use…

*The technical ranking system is a quantitative approach that utilizes multiple technical considerations that include but are not limited to trend, momentum, measurements of accumulation/distribution and relative strength of each individual 20 EM Country ETFs that can range between 0 and 50. The Total EM Technical Ranking or “TEMTR” is the sum of the twenty individual TRs and can be viewed as an overbought / oversold indicator as well as a confirmation / non-confirmation indicator. There is also a Total Ranking for each geographic region that can be viewed as a relative measurement on a week over week basis.

This past week The Total EM Technical Ranking or “TEMTR” fell -6.94% to 516 adding to the previous week’s -18.81% loss to 554.5 from a recent high of 683 three weeks ago. The Total Asia-Pacific Ranking was the only one of the three geographic regions that was up last week (although it was up only slightly) by being up +1.2% to 244 vs. 241 the previous week. Last week the Total EMEA EM Ranking fell -9.0% to 141 from 155 two weeks ago which added to the -24.0% decline to 155 from 204 the previous week. The Total Lat AM Ranking dropped the most last week by falling -17.4% to 131 from 158.5 the previous week which was a further deterioration from the week ending April 17th when it registered a Total Ranking of 198.

Six of the twenty EM Country ETFs I track in these pages registered gains in their Technical Rankings or TRs over the past week. Five of those that marked gains were Asia/Pacific ETF TRs. Last week six of the TRs were in the “green zone” (TRs between 34.5 and 50), eight were in the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34), and six were in the “red zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). The previous week there were seven TRs were in the “green zone”, ten were in the “blue zone”, and three were in the “red zone”. For the first time since February 28, 2025, there was a Lat/AM ETF Technical Ranking in the “red zone”, the Global X MSCI Colombia ETF (COLO) ending the week there and fell the most TR “notches” by dropping -13.5 to 14 from 27.5. As will be seen later in today’s Study the COLO fell the most on an absolute basis last week by being down -5.95%.

The Technical Condition Factor changes over the past week and previous 8 weeks

*To understand the construction the of The Technical Condition Factors visit the Market’s Compass website www.themarketscompass.com and go to the mc’s technical indicators page and select “em country etfs”.

A short version of the how the Technical Condition Factors are calculated follows…

There are eight Technical Condition Factors (“TCFs”) that are a summation of the twenty ETFs TRs technical condition of each TCF question. The eight Technical Condition Factors do not ask the same number of questions. That is why it is calculated as a percentage. If a TCF individual reading is 100% that would mean that all Twenty ETFs fullfilled that particular TCF criterior.

This past week a reading an overbought 38.57% was registered in the Daily Momentum Technical Condition Factor (”DMTCF”) or 154 out of a possible total of 140 positive points. That marked the third weekly drop from the overbought reading for the week ending April 10th when it reached 96.43% or 135 out of 140.

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week-over-week basis, more of the 20 ETFs are improving internally on a technical basis, confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely if all eight TCFs fall on a week-over-week basis it confirms a broader market move lower.

Last week six TCFs fell, and two rose slightly

Relative Strength and Weakness in the Emerging Markets ETFs vs. the EEM utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph

The Relative Rotation Graph, commonly referred to as RRGs were developed in 2004-2005 by Julius de Kempenaer. These charts are a unique visualization tool for relative strength analysis. Chartists can use RRGs to analyze the relative strength trends of several securities against a common benchmark, (in this case the EEM) and against each other over any given time period (in the case below, daily) over the past three weeks. The power of RRG is its ability to plot relative performance on one graph and show true rotation. All RRGs charts use four quadrants to define the four phases of a relative trend. The Optuma RRG charts uses, From Leading (in green) to Weakening (in yellow) to Lagging (in pink) to Improving (in blue) and back to Leading (in green). True rotations can be seen as securities move from one quadrant to the other over time. This is only a brief explanation of how to interpret RRG charts. To learn more, see the post scripts and links at the end of this Blog.

Not all 20 ETFs are plotted in this RRG Chart. I have done this for clarity purposes. Those which I believe are of higher technical interest remain.

Although there has been a slowing in Relative Strength Momentum in both the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) and iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY) over the past week that slowing has stabilized. The EWY rolled over from a high of 102.73 three Fridays ago. Nonetheless, both have continued to gain on a Relative Strength (“RS”) basis vs. the EEM over the past three weeks, and both registered the best “RS” readings at the end of last week, at 105.34 and 105.25 respectively (see the Tabulation Table below). For the past two weeks the iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund ETF (EWM) has marked improving Relative Strength Momentum as it has risen out of the Lagging Quadrant into the Improving Quadrant.

The Emerging Markets Country ETF Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum Tabulation Table.

The “Tabulation Table” below marks the Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum readings vs. the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF or EEM. It begins with the readings at the end of last week followed by the trailing three weeks. If there has been an improvement in either the Relative Strength Ratio or the Relative Strength Momentum reading on a week-over-week basis I have highlighted it in green. If there has been a contraction in either, it is highlighted in red and an unchanged reading in either will remain black. The color-coding system serves as a heat map over the past four Friday’s readings highlighting either the continued improvement, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark, the EEM. The ETFs that are displayed on the RRG chart above are highlighted in blue.

**The Weekly Candlestick and Cloud Chart of the EEM with the Average EM ETF Technical Ranking (“ATR”)* of the 20 EM ETFs and Weekly Momentum Oscillators**

*The “ATR” serves as an overbought or oversold as well as a confirmation / non-confirmation indicator. Extremes in the ATR signals overbought and oversold conditions and should rise and drop in concert with price moves. Because it can be volatile, moving average direction and position should be the key analytical focus.

When I last published my comments on the technical condition of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF or EEM’s Weekly Chart the ETF had just risen sharply of the April 3rd lows, the following week the EEM rose back into the confines of the Schiff Modified Pitch (gold P1 through P3) and above potential price resistance at the Kijun Plot (green line) and the Tenkan Plot (red line) solidifying the technical thesis that the lows “were in”. The follow-through to the upside the following week drove the EEM above the Median Line (gold dotted line) of the multi-month Pitchfork. Over the past two weeks there has been a period of consolidation leading me write the subtitle to this week’s Study “A Time to Eat, A Time to Digest”. The Average Technical Ranking’s failure to confirm the new closing price highs (violet line in upper panel) by printing a lower high and the drop of 13-Week Exponential Moving Average or “EMA” (red line) through the longer-term 45-Week EMA (blue line) are a technical concern. The 8-Week Stochastic Momentum Index (center panel) has worked off a good portion of its oversold condition although it has not reached conversely an overbought condition yet. Longer-term MACD has turned higher and is back above its signal line. The sum of these longer-term technical features suggest that there may be “more left” to the current rally and the intra-week record highs in the EEM at 65.96 and the Upper Parallel (solid gold line) of the Pitchfork could be challenged before a correction of a larger degree unfolds.

Learn about Pitchforks and their application in the three-part Pitchfork tutorial at the Market’s Compass website, www.themarketscompass.com

More on the technical condition of the EEM in Thoughts on the Short-Term Technical Condition of the EEM but first…

The EM Country ETFs Weekly Absolute and Relative Price % Change*

*Does not include dividends if any.

Six of the EM Country ETFs were up on an absolute basis last week. Four of the EM ETFs outperformed the +0.61% gain in the EEM on a relative basis (all four were Asia / Pacific ETF’s) and sixteen underperformed. The average five-day absolute price loss in the Emerging Markets ETFs was -0.88%, adding to the -2.36% loss the previous week.

Thoughts on the Short-Term Technical Condition of the EEM

As I said in comments on the Weekly Chart, the recent price action points to a relatively strong upward price consolidation as the EEM has been able to notch a number of daily closing highs including the 64.13 close on Friday but there has been a loss of momentum and more concerning breadth as witnessed by the EM Country ETF Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator below the price panel. It rebounded late last week but it is more technical “sound” to monitor the action of the moving averages. Thursdays and Friday’s price action also drove a rebound in the 8-Day Stochastic Momentum Index back above its signal line and although MACD remains above its signal line it remains in overbought territory.

I have to say my money was on Emerging Market in the Derby and I will not say its an indicator but alas it did not even Show. I will post an interim report when firmer technical signals develop.

All the charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software enables anyone to visualize any data including my Objective Technical Rankings. The following links are an introduction and an in-depth tutorial on RRG Charts…

https://www.optuma.com/videos/introduction-to-rrg/

https://www.optuma.com/videos/optuma-webinar-2-rrgs/

To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…

www.optuma.com/TMC.

The Market's Compass US Index and Sector ETF Study

The Market's Compass — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 17:57:10 GMT

Welcome to The Market’s Compass US Index and Sector ETF Study, Week #592

As always it highlights the technical changes of the 30 US Index and Sector ETFs that I track on a weekly basis and normally publish every third week. Past publications can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.

Apologies for today’s late publication of this week’s Study!

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the 30 Individual U.S. Index and Sector ETFs

The Total Technical Ranking or “TER” of the U.S. Index and Sector ETFs fell -3.63% last week to 1036 from the recent pinncle of 1075 the previous week which was the best level since February 27th (1103.5).

Fourteen ETFs registered increases in their TRs last week, and sixteen ETF TRs fell. Eighteen ETF TRs ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs from 35 to 50), ten ended the week in the “blue zone” (TRs from 15.5 to 34.5) and only two fell into the “red zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). The previous week there were nine in the “green zone”, twenty were in the “blue zone”, and only one was in the “red zone”. The average TR loss on the week was -1.45, reversing the week before average TR gain of +2.62.

Relative Strength and Weakness in the Developed Markets ETFs vs. the URTH utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph

Not all 30 US Index and Sector ETFs are plotted in this RRG Chart. I have done this for clarity purposes. Those which I believe are of higher technical interest remain.

Energy ETFs had a rough two weeks on a Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum basis vs. the SPX Index until a recovery last week. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) led the charge lower three weeks ago by rapidly losing Relative Strength Momentum (note the distance between the daily nodes) before it flattened out in the Lagging Quadrant before it turned higher at the end of last week. The SPDR Energy Select Sector Fund ETF (XLE) fell in concert with the XLE until itrecovered at the end of last week. The VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH) was the last of the three to leave the Leading Quadrant behind, but it too dropped through the Weakening Quadrant into the Lagging Quadrant. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was the standout Relative Strength performer although it began to lose a measure of Momentum last week it nonetheless registered the best Relative Strength vs. the SPX Index at the end of last week at 106.59 (see the Tabulation Table below).

The U.S. Index and Sector ETFs Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”.

The Relative Strength and Relative Strength “Tabulation Table” begins with the readings at the end of last week followed by the trailing three weeks that includes the Readings from the last Study. If there has been an improvement in either the Relative Strength Ratio or the Relative Strength Momentum reading on a week-over-week basis I have highlighted it in green. If there has been a contraction in either, it is highlighted in red and an unchanged reading in either will remain in black. The color-coding system serves as a heat map over the past four Friday’s readings highlighting either the continued improvement, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark, the SPX Index.

**The Technical Condition Factor* Changes over the past week and previous 8 weeks**

To fully understand the construction the of The Technical Condition Factors visit the MC’s Technical Indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and go to “us etfs”.

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week over week basis, more of the 30 ETFs are improving internally on a technical basis confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely if all eight TCFs fell over the week it confirms a move lower in the broader market. Last week two TCFs gained ground, one was unchanged and five fell.

The Weekly Candlestick and Cloud Chart with The Average Technical Ranking of the 30 US Index and Sector ETFs

The SPX Index has rallied impulsively over the past four weeks, driving the large-cap Index to a new record weekly closing high of 7,165.10. Not only did the Index overtake the Cluster of potential resistance at the Tenkan and Kijun Plot at 6,7140, it blasted through the previous record weekly closing high and the Upper Parallel (solid gold line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork. Although it is folly to argue with the bullish price action there is one secondary technical concern. US ETF Average Technical Ranking has failed to confirm the new highs by printing a lower high (red dashed line). This does not suggest a approaching “death knell” in the index but it deserves monitoring.

The Weekly Absolute and Relative Price % Change

Thoughts on the Short-Term Technical Condition of the SPX Index with Daily Momentum Oscillators

After a brief period of consolidation, prices moved onto a new daily closing high managing to remain in the confines of the strong uptrend (highlighted with the yellow dashed line). All three momentum Oscillators suggest that the index has become stretched. The SPX Momentum / Breadth Oscillator has fallen below its shorter-term moving average from a lower high (red dotted line in the bottom panel). That said only a break of the up-trend followed by a break of key price support at the 7,000 level would hint that a correction of a larger degree was unfolding.

The Market's Compass Technical View

The Market’s Compass Developed Markets Country ETF Study

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

The Market's Compass Emerging Markets Country ETF Study

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the Sixteen Individual Cryptocurrencies

The 13-Week Simple Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1st

Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph

Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”

Seven Day Absolute % Price Change*

Year to Date Absolute % Price Change

The Technical Condition Factors

The Weekly CCi30 Index and The Weekly Stochastic Momentum Index, MACD, and The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or“TSSTCF” Oscillator*

The CCi30 Index Daily Candlestick Chart with Momentum Oscillators

The Market's Compass US Index and Sector ETF Study

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Techn…

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the Sixteen Individual Cryptocurrencies

The 13-Week Exponential Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1st

Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph

Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”

Seven Day Absolute % Price Change*

Year to Date Absolute % Price Change

The Technical Condition Factors

The Weekly CCi30 Index and The Weekly Stochastic Momentum Index, MACD, and The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or“TSSTCF” Oscillator*

The CCi30 Index Daily Candlestick Chart with Momentum Oscillators

Engineering News Record Materials Price Index, Building Cost Index, and Construction Metals Prices

ENR Materials Price Index

ENR Building Cost Index

Aluminum Sheet

Stainless Steel

I Beams

Re Bar

The Market’s Compass Developed Markets Country ETF Study

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the Sixteen Individual Cryptocurrencies

The 13-Week Exponential Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1st

Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph

Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”

Seven Day Absolute % Price Change*

Year to Date Absolute % Price Change

The Technical Condition Factors

The Weekly CCi30 Index and The Weekly Stochastic Momentum Index, MACD, and The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or“TSSTCF” Oscillator*

The Market's Compass Emerging Markets Country ETF Study

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

In Observance of Memorial Day I pay tribute to my Father and Mother.

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the Sixteen Individual Cryptocurrencies

The 13-Week Exponential Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1st

Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph

Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”

Seven Day Absolute % Price Change*

The Technical Condition Factors

The Weekly CCi30 Index and The Weekly Stochastic Momentum Index, MACD, and The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or“TSSTCF” Oscillator*

The CCi30 Index Daily Candlestick Chart with Momentum Oscillators

Engineering News Record Construction Material Prices, Aluminum Sheet, Concrete Block, Copper Water Tubing, and Corrugated Steel Pipe Prices Jump to Record Highs in April

Aluminum Sheet

Concrete Block

Copper Water Tubing

Corrugated Steel Pipe

The Market's Compass US Index and Sector ETF Study

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the 30 Individual U.S. Index and Sector ETFs

Relative Strength and Weakness in the Developed Markets ETFs vs. the URTH utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph

The Technical Condition Factor* Changes over the past week and previous 8 weeks

The Weekly Absolute and Relative Price % Change

The Weekly Candlestick and Cloud Chart with The Stochastic Momentum Index and The Average Technical Ranking of the 30 US Index and Sector ETFs

The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the Sixteen Individual Cryptocurrencies

Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph

Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”

Seven Day Absolute % Price Change*

The Technical Condition Factors

The Weekly CCi30 Index and The Weekly Stochastic Momentum Index, MACD, and The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor or“TSSTCF” Oscillator*

The CCi30 Index Daily Candlestick Chart with Momentum Oscillators

The Market’s Compass Developed Markets Country ETF Study

This Week’s and 8 Week Trailing Technical Rankings of the 21 Individual DM Country ETFs

Relative Strength and Weakness in the Developed Markets ETFs vs. the URTH utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph

The Develped Markets Country ETF Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum “Tabulation Table”.

The Technical Condition Factor* Changes over the past week and previous 8 weeks

The URTH with This Week’s Total DM ETF Ranking “DMTER” Overlaid

The URTH with the Average Technical Ranking of the 21 Developed Markets Country ETFs and Momentum Oscillators charted with a Weekly Candlestick and Cloud Chart

**The 13-Week Simple Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1^st**

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

**The 13-Week Exponential Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1^st**

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

**The 13-Week Exponential Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1^st**

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

The 13-Week Exponential Moving Averages* of the Sweet Sixteen Objective Technical Rankings Since January 1^st

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

**The Technical Condition Factor* Changes over the past week and previous 8 weeks**

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

**The Technical Condition Factor* Changes over the past week and previous 8 weeks**

**Relative Strength and Weakness in the Sweet Sixteen vs. The CCi30 Index* utilizing a Relative Rotation Graph**

**The Weekly Candlestick and Cloud Chart of the EEM with the Average EM ETF Technical Ranking (“ATR”)* of the 20 EM ETFs and Weekly Momentum Oscillators**

**The Technical Condition Factor* Changes over the past week and previous 8 weeks**